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Sam Altman may be right to say that investors in AI are “exaggerated”. But this is not a balloon in the sense of Tulip Mania. Openai has real revenue ($ 13 billion) and massive consumer growth. However, technological evaluations, especially the magnificent dominance of the seven in the S&P 500, seem overheated, suggesting a potential correction, even if the foundations remain strong.
Openai CEO Sam Altman said the word “balloon” three times in 15 seconds in a room full of reporters, and then called for them not to write a story about it – thus ensuring that many stories would be written. He argues that investors are “excessive” by AI.
Is he right?
From the point of view of technical actions, probably yes. From the point of view, maybe not.
The classic balloon exists when the assets that are valued are essentially not worth their price (and will never be) or when the basic value is close to zero.
So, in the great Dutch “tulip mania” of 1637, it is clear that in the background it is clear that the price of the tulip bulb should never be equal to a 10 -time year salary.
And in the great financial crisis of 2008, it became clear that many mortgages to people who simply did not have the ability to afford them were given in the background, and thus these mortgages cost far less than the balances of banks said they did.
So the question is whether AI is a balloon or not right now. From the fundamental point of view, the answer is no. Openai is not worth literally anything. This is not a bulb with a tulip or a tract home in the middle of nowhere. There is a real business there.
JPMorgan’s Brenda Duverce told customers in a recent note that “Openai’s ARR has reached ~ $ 13 billion (up to 30% from June-25), and the company reported that it is about to reach 700 million active users (up to 40% of the MAR-25), while exceeding 5MN exceeded 5MN She also noted that a “secondary market transaction that could raise the company’s estimate of up to $ 500 billion compared to the $ 300 billion quoted earlier from the Mar-25, which will make the most valuable private company in the world.”
To put it honest, a chat company that often makes things wrong is somehow to become the biggest unicorn she has ever seen. This feels penny.
But Openai costs nothing: $ 13 billion in revenue is a real thing. Perhaps the value of its own capital will decrease in the short term, but the company does not deal with the way Lehman Brothers was in 2007.
But what about the technical point of view?
Currently, there is a lot of Wall Street chatter about whether technological stocks are overestimated in a way that looks like a balloon. They have some scary diagrams!