Bitcoin Price has long followed a familiar rhythm: every four years, half the new delivery of coins decreases, leaving a bull. Then, when the price becomes too penny and mood too euphoric, traders make a profit and the price is carried on a bear market.
This gaming book is already dead, according to Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.
But not everyone agrees with him.
“The forces that have created previous four-year cycles are weaker,” Hogan said on Friday. “Reduction is half important every four years, the interest rate cycle is positive for cryptocurrency, and the risk of explosion is weakened.”
For Hougan, the structural forces behind the classic cycles of Bitcoin Boom and Bust-like the impact on the supplies-they break down. Meanwhile, a new macro and regulatory environment is working in favor of Bitcoin.
The launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFS in the United States in January 2024 has launched a multi -year trend of influx that can reshape the whole class of assets, Hogan said.
And the institutions are just now beginning to accumulate. Pension funds, donations and national wealth platforms are still on board.
At the same time, the regulation acquires clarity, Wall Street is infrastructure, and billions of capital enter space – fueled by legislative breakthroughs such as the Genius Act, adopted earlier this month.
And this is not to talk about the penny Bitcoin treasures who were shopping like no other. According to Bitcointreasuries.net, in the last 30 days 22 public companies have joined 138, which have already held Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The total amount is already 160 and counts.
“Long -term prodigy forces will flood the classic” four -year cycle “forces,” Hogan said, “And they are not synchronized with decreasing cycles.”
But some disagree.
“I think the opposite is true,” said Nick Hansen, CEO of Bitcoin Mining Outlet Luxor, said DL News.
“When we are in the depths of the bear market, the treasury companies will not work as solid bitcoins that continue to arrange bitcoins.”
If Bitcoin suffered a 50% withdrawal, treasure companies will be heavily pressed to find capital, as they do today, Hansen explained. They also have operating costs and could face the pressure of shareholders to eliminate their participation if their shares decrease with the Bitcoin they hold.
And this is not to mention the potential of Bitcoin ETF owners to start selling, which “would further reduce the price,” he said.
Some agree with Hougan, but they take a more capable approach.
“I am someone who thinks he is intact but will be muted,” said James Seafart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence at Kyle Chasse’s podcare on July 24th.