What a new study tells us about how Trump won in 2024

The victory of President Donald Trump in 2024 over former Vice President Kamala Harris was fueled by a “voter coalition, which was more racily and ethnically diverse than in 2020 or 2016”, as well as an advantage of the voters who did not turn out to be the previous election, according to the report, according to the report, according to the report, according to a report, according to a report, according to the report, according to a report, according to a report, according to a report, reported, reported, reported, reported, PTA, PTA, reports, reports, reported, PTA, PTA, PTA, reported, reported, PTA, PTA, PTA, PTOs, PTA, PTOs, PTA, PTOs, PTA, PTA, PTOs, PTA, PTOs, PTA, PTOs, PTA, PTO, reported, according to a report.

Pew analysis, which combines data from studies from its internal panel by participants in studies with information from voter records, contributes to a more clear picture of the electorate in 2024.

He found that about three -quarters of the voters meeting the requirements in the United States made the same decision in 2024, which they made in 2020, whether it voted for the Republican or Democrat, choosing a third -party candidate or fully sitting in the election. But a quarter made a different choice-supply to return Trump to the White House.

Trump stayed at 85% of his constituents in 2020, settled in the report, while Harris kept 79% of former President Joe Biden’s supporters. Compared to 2020, Trump won a higher share of the votes among Spanish voters (48%, with 36%), Asian voters (40%, with 30%) and black voters (15%, compared to 8%).

“These changes were largely the result of the differences in which the voters were in the 2020 and 2024 elections,” concludes the authors of the Pew report. “As in the past, a relatively small share of voters changed the candidate which party they supported.”

Fifteen percent of Biden’s supporters in 2020 and 11% of Trump’s supporters in 2020 did not vote four years later, their analysis found. Trump also won about 5% of Biden’s supporters in 2020, while Harris took about 3% of the voters who supported Trump in previous elections.

And while most voters who did not vote in 2020 stayed home last year, those who decided to vote in 2024 have broken for Trump over Harris, 54% to 42%. Adding people who were too young to vote in the last election, the margin is a little more close.

Pew analysis is based on a study results conducted just after the November presidential election. Like all studies, his results offer an evaluation of voter behavior, not an attempt to determine the point. Therefore, different analyzes after the election may diverge in some findings about the electorate, even when they approach a common consensus.

The new analysis, similar to a report last month by the Catalytte of the Democratic Data Company, includes fresh sources of data: Information from commercial polling stakes that combine the official records of state activity. Pew analysis corresponds to the data of voters with the responses to their study – and since his polls are conducted with the help of a group of respondents who respond to multiple studies over time, researchers there can often track specific models of voting of faces.

The Catalyst’s report similarly found that voters who were incorrectly played a key role in Trump’s victory. Since non-presidential elections usually see lower turnout, this can also have potential consequences as parties begin to prepare for the upcoming average.

“There is definitely some evidence that this change in the Democrats is doing better among the more consistent voters may have some down -to -chain impacts,” says Hanna Paulg, a senior researcher at Pew Research -although she noted that with the long way, it is too early to know how it can develop.

A few more take on the Pew Report:

• Trump also improved their number among the voters of menwho split for trump by a 12-point margin in 2024 after dividing close between the Candidates in 2020. There is wa ESPECIALY SHARP MALE VOTERS YOU AGER 50-WHILET That Marked A Swing from A 10-Point Preference for Biden in 2020. Both Pew and Catalist Show Democrats Losing More Ground Among Male Voters Than Feno Vote, While Exit Polling and Post-Elect Across Gender lines.

• Education remains a major line of guilt in American policyS The graduates who voted in 2024 broke for Harris with a 16-point margin in Pew data, while those without degrees broke for Trump with 14 points-although both discoveries represent an improvement for Trump from his numbers. The Catalist report discovered such educational trends, but a slightly less division between voters of Latin American voters outlined, while the exit polls and voting showed that college graduates remained more stable.

• Naturalized US citizens make up about 9% of last year’s electorateAccording to Pew. And in 2024 they were closely divided, with 51% supported Harris and 47% supported Trump. In 2020, this group broke strongly for Biden.

The design of the Pew survey also allowed them to register with no -serving: adults who have the right to vote but were not part of 64%, which actually turned out. In the past, this group usually relying on a democratic: they asked who they would prefer, if they voted, the non-participants in 2020 supported Biden over Trump with a margin of 11 points. But in 2024, which are not closely divided, with 44% preferring Trump and 40% Harris.

“If something magic had happened in any way, and everyone who had the right to vote in fact appeared, not only wouldn’t help the Democrats and Harris, it could actually push Trump’s margin slightly up,” said Scott Kiter, a senior study at the Pew study.

The Pew Research Center examined 8,942 adults in the United States in November 2024, using the nationally representative US trend, including 7,100 voters who were able to be compared to a voter. The results among the full sample of validated voters have an error limit +/- 1.5 percentage points. More details on the study methodology are available here.

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